How Max Verstappen can disrupt Kimi Antonelli, George Russell title fight in remainder of 2026 Formula 1 season

· 8 min read

The 2026 Formula 1 title race has become a two-horse race between Mercedes duo Kimi Antonelli and George Russell with eight rounds remaining.

Antonelli leads Russell by 66 points ahead of this weekend's Bahrain Grand Prix in Malaysia and it will be fascinating to see how the Italian responds following what he called his "worst weekend" of the season last time out in Baku.

Depending on the quality of Mercedes' major upgrade package that will be introduced in Malaysia this week, we could see the Silver Arrows dominate the last third of the season.

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However, there's one driver everyone on the grid mentions every weekend when it comes to who could challenge, or who will be a threat - and that's Max Verstappen.

This year is the first season Verstappen has not challenged for the title since 2020, having won four championships in a row from 2021 to 2024 and coming just two points short of an incredible comeback in 2025 to defeat Lando Norris.

After a difficult start to 2026, Red Bull appear to be on an upward trajectory again and history shows Verstappen will be an issue for other title protagonists.

Formula 1 2026 remaining races

Malaysia This weekend Las Vegas November 20-22
Singapore* October 9-11 Qatar November 27-29
USA October 23-25 Abu Dhabi December 4-6
Mexico Oct 30-Nov 1 *denotes Sprint weekend December 4-6
Brazil November 6-8

A repeat of 2016?

Ten years ago, Nico Rosberg and Lewis Hamilton were duking it out for the title and Rosberg just came out on top.

It was an incredible, tense ending to the season but during the run-in, despite Mercedes having a dominant car, a 19-year-old Verstappen gave Rosberg and Hamilton a headache on a few occasions.

"My god, having him around in the races! The risk of a DNF for myself, it increases like 10-fold," Rosberg told Sky Sports F1 when reflecting on 2016.

"On my way to the championship, I had him around me every race in the last four races. He passed me I think in three of those four races, in a tussle."

Nico Rosberg, Max Verstappen and Lewis Hamilton on the podium at the 2016 Japanese GP (AP)

Image: Nico Rosberg, Max Verstappen and Lewis Hamilton on the podium at the 2016 Japanese GP (AP)

At the Japanese Grand Prix, Verstappen found himself ahead of Hamilton in the closing stages and was prepared to defend aggressively in their fight for second to the frustration of the British driver.

Hamilton claimed Verstappen "moved under braking" which led to the FIA clamping down on such a manoeuvre which became known as the "Verstappen Rule".

While Brazil 2016 is remembered for Verstappen's superb comeback drive in torrential rain to the podium, he was actually running in second earlier in the race after dancing around the outside of Rosberg in Turn 3.

We are yet to have a wet race or qualifying in 2026 and, in theory, the cars with most downforce should be the best in the wet. But Verstappen's ability in the rain cannot be underestimated and he will be willing to take risks when the Mercedes drivers may not, similarly to Rosberg in 2016.

Max Verstappen holding up Nico Rosberg at the 2016 Abu Dhabi Grand Prix (Photo by Red Bull Content Pool/Clive Mason/Getty Images)

Image: Max Verstappen holding up Nico Rosberg at the 2016 Abu Dhabi Grand Prix (Photo by Red Bull Content Pool/Clive Mason/Getty Images)

And in the season finale, Verstappen spun on the opening lap and dropped to the back but ran an alternative strategy and, in the middle of the race, had Rosberg behind him, who was on fresher tyres after pitting and needed to overtake the Red Bull driver.

"Tony [Ross, Rosberg's race engineer] saying it's critical we pass Verstappen for the championship…holy moly, seriously!" explained Rosberg.

"The feelings that I had in the battle and right after when I realised that I passed him, I've never had that in a race car before ever in my life."

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Check out some of the best title deciders from the past decade

Are Red Bull now a genuine threat to Mercedes?

Mercedes have consistently had a quick car at every race in 2026, not always the fastest, but good enough to at least fight for the win.

Ferrari, McLaren and Red Bull on the other hand have been up and down - all three having clear weaknesses which makes them uncompetitive at certain tracks.

On average, Red Bull have had the fourth fastest car but Verstappen impressively has the most podiums (seven) of the non-Mercedes drivers and five of those have come in the last six rounds.

Red Bull brought their last big upgrade package of the season to Baku and both drivers were happy with the new parts, which included a new floor body, diffuser and sidepods.

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Highlights from the 2026 Azerbaijan Grand Prix

Verstappen was less than two tenths from snatching victory away from Russell while Isack Hadjar finished an impressive third in his first race since the end of July - it marked the first time in over two years two Red Bull drivers have featured on the podium.

"On paper, Baku was the most favourable [track] in terms of car characteristics," said Red Bull team principal Laurent Mekies.

"Equally, I think the performance we've shown in the race is giving us decent hope that we will get another couple of occasions before the end of the year.

"On top of getting a couple of other occasions to get that first win, it's also good to go on tracks where it's going to be more difficult, because it's exactly what we need to be confronted with to continue to progress."

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Red Bull drivers Isack Hadjar and Max Verstappen reflect on the Azerbaijan GP

The big test of Red Bull's upgrades will come this weekend at the Sepang International Circuit - a more traditional track with big medium to high-speed corners that tests a car's aerodynamics.

Tyre wear has been an issue for Red Bull but if their Baku upgrades have fixed that, Verstappen and Hadjar should be competitive again.

Verstappen: If opportunity to win is there, we go for it

This is a milestone Mekies alluded to earlier as Red Bull and Verstappen have won a race every year since 2016.

Verstappen will play things down about wanting to keep his streak of winning in 10 consecutive seasons (the record is 15 held by Hamilton and Michael Schumacher) alive, but surely deep down he is very keen to stand on the top step of the podium at least once this year.

"If Mercedes is bringing an upgrade and it works, then they take a step ahead, and that's not what you want. It will make it even more difficult to win," said Verstappen.

"But we'll try every single weekend and, of course, if the opportunity is there, we go for it."

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George Russell describes his tense showdown with Max Verstappen for the Azerbaijan GP win

Depending on how Mercedes' upgrades perform and how the Red Bull fares on more traditional circuits over the remainder of the season, it is hard to say which will be Verstappen's best chance of winning.

Las Vegas in November is very similar to Baku with low tyre degradation and long straights, while Mexico City in October will be interesting due to its high altitude and which power units perform best at 2000m above sea level. In the previous regulations, the Honda power unit was very strong at altitude.

Even if Verstappen is unable to win, he will be feisty on opening laps and Safety Car restarts, knowing he has nothing to lose against the Mercedes drivers.

Although Antonelli and Russell do not need to beat Verstappen, they must be wary when fighting the Dutchman because, as he reminded us in Baku, is unrelenting and never makes your life easy on the track.

Sky Sports F1's live schedule Bahrain GP schedule in Malaysia

Thursday October 1
7am: Drivers' Press Conference
10am: Paddock Uncut

Friday October 2
5am: Bahrain GP Practice One (session starts at 5.30am)*
7.30am: Team Bosses' Press Conference
8.45am: Bahrain GP Practice Two (session starts at 9am)*
10.15am: The F1 Show*

Saturday October 3
5.15am: Bahrain GP Practice Three (session starts at 5.30am)*
8am: Bahrain GP Qualifying build-up*
9am: BAHRAIN GP QUALIFYING*

Sunday October 4
6.30am: Grand Prix Sunday: Bahrain GP build-up*
8am: THE BAHRAIN GRAND PRIX*
10am: Chequered Flag: Bahrain GP reaction*

*also on Sky Sports Main Event

Formula 1 heads to Malaysia for the first time since 2017 as it hosts the Bahrain Grand Prix at the Sepang International Circuit - watch live coverage from Friday morning, live on Sky Sports F1. Stream Sky Sports with NOW - no contract, cancel anytime